Active Fire Spread Modeling
Risk Reduction Category
Technology Description
Wildfire spread modeling is an important tool for utilities, first responders, evacuation planners, insurance actuaries, and many others. Separate from risk analysis, a fire spread model predicts the direction and speed of travel of a fire based on factors such as fuel condition, windspeed and humidity.
Utilities, for example benefit from a fire spread model to predict when and where critical infrastructure maybe become threatened assets. Utilities desire to keep circuits operational as much as possible, especially where the cost of an interruption is very high. Therefore these models help to narrow the focus to specific areas and provide warning for impending actions by the utility. Knowing gust potentials in certain locations can provide an indication of where and when to remediate via undergounding power conductors or shutting off power.
A gap that exists today is the lack of integration of sensors. For example, San Diego Gas & Electric (SDGE) has hundreds of weather stations providing data on windspeed, however, while these sensors may be providing useful information, they are underutilized in terms of the potential benefits for this particular use case.
To perform a consequence analysis, detailed information concerning the involved materials, assets, and hazards must be available and understood. The consequence-analysis model has an existing fire risk where assets might include demographic data along with hospitals, assisted living facilities, etc. and possibly including a health & safety layer.
Fire spread forecasting can reveal where areas may be most threatened. One wildfire-modeling system in use for 50 years is the Rothermel Fire Spread Model first published in 1972 and referenced by the USDA and US Forest Service [2]. This model is used in multiple computerized fire behavior models. Modeling is essential in identifying risk to downstream communities taking into account windspeed, dryness of vegetation, and other factors. Modeling should include a fuel condition layer that should be updated on a weekly basis to provide accurate predictions based on the condition of vegetation
Technical Readiness (Commercial Availability)
Fire spread modeling is not a technical gap today, but can be cost prohibitive. Larger utilities and fire agencies such as CAL FIRE, along with state and federal government agencies are among the current subscribers to a commercially available product by Technosylva. Technosylva combines multiple fire-related models to predict wildfire behavior, mitigate wildfire risk, and improve wildfire operations, response, and firefighter safety.[1] Their software provides the following functionality: [3]
- Comprehensive situational awareness
- Resource and incident management
- Collect and view real-time data from the field
Individual models, such as those used by Technosylva, have been developed for the open source community and are available license-free. With this in mind, Pacific Northwest National Lab is developing a suite of tools offering similar capability and functionality as the commercial product.
Technosylva
https://technosylva.com/products/wildfire-analyst/firesim/
Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL)
https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/taming-tomorrows-wildfires
Implementations / Deployments
Larger utilities and fire agencies such as CAL FIRE, along with state and federal government agencies are currently subscribed to the commercially available Technosylva product. Cost is a barrier for smaller utilities and co-ops.
Innovations as of Mid 2023
Potential Enrichment Work Opportunity
References
[1] https://www.thehartford.com/insights/home-workplace-safety/protecting-against-increased-wildfire- risk