Active Fire Spread Modeling
Risk Reduction Category
Technology Description
Wildfire spread modeling is an important tool for utilities, first responders, evacuation planners, insurance actuaries, and many others. Separate from risk analysis, a fire spread model predicts the direction and speed of travel of a fire based on factors such as fuel condition, windspeed and humidity.
Utilities, for example benefit from a fire spread model to predict when and where critical infrastructure maybe become threatened assets. Utilities desire to keep circuits operational as much as possible, especially where the cost of an interruption is very high. Therefore these models help to narrow the focus to specific areas and provide warning for impending actions by the utility. Knowing gust potentials in certain locations can provide an indication of where and when to remediate via undergounding power conductors or shutting off power.
A gap that exists today is the lack of integration of sensors. For example, San Diego Gas & Electric (SDGE) has hundreds of weather stations providing data on windspeed, however, while these sensors may be providing useful information, they are underutilized in terms of the potential benefits for this particular use case. To perform a consequence analysis, detailed information concerning the involved materials, assets, and hazards must be available and understood. The consequence-analysis model has an existing fire risk where assets might include demographic data along with hospitals, assisted living facilities, etc. and possibly including a health & safety layer.
Fire spread forecasting can reveal where areas may be most threatened. One wildfire-modeling system in use for 50 years is the Rothermel Fire Spread Model first published in 1972 and referenced by the USDA and US Forest Service [2]. This model is used in multiple computerized fire behavior models. Modeling is essential in identifying risk to downstream communities taking into account windspeed, dryness of vegetation, and other factors. Modeling should include a fuel condition layer that should be updated on a weekly basis to provide accurate predictions based on the condition of vegetation.
Technical Readiness (Commercial Availability)
Fire spread modeling is not a technical gap today, but can be cost prohibitive. Larger utilities and fire agencies such as CAL FIRE, along with state and federal government agencies are among the current subscribers to a commercially available product by Technosylva. Technosylva combines multiple fire-related models to predict wildfire behavior, mitigate wildfire risk, and improve wildfire operations, response, and firefighter safety.[1] Their software provides the following functionality: [3]
- Comprehensive situational awareness
- Resource and incident management
- Collect and view real-time data from the field
Individual models, such as those used by Technosylva, have been developed for the open source community and are available license-free. With this in mind, Pacific Northwest National Lab is developing a suite of tools offering similar capability and functionality as the commercial product.
Another firespread modeling tool with other built-in capabilities is offered by Firescape. Firescape is an AI-driven platform for wildfire risk analytics that provides daily risk forecasts and near real-time situational insights using satellite data, advanced simulations, and machine learning.[4] Its core capabilities include predicting ignition and spread risks, evaluating suppression challenges, modeling mitigation ROI, and offering API/SaaS integration. Built for utilities and critical infrastructure operators, Firescape helps prioritize mitigation efforts, plan response strategies, and minimize financial and operational impacts from wildfires.
The Situational Risk Dashboard enables users to anticipate PSPS events up to seven days in advance and monitor wildfire progression. It features automated notifications to keep customers and stakeholders informed about PSPS forecasts. The dashboard supports operational decisions during wildfire season, such as suspending maintenance, reallocating staff, or de-energizing lines. It also includes a financial risk analysis to assess potential property damage and supply chain disruptions.
Leveraging satellite imagery and AI-driven modeling, Firescape predicts fire spread by running thousands of simulations. Its Mitigation Planning Tool helps utilities optimize investments in mitigation strategies, offering tailored recommendations based on budget and priorities. The tool assists with work planning and progress tracking, and includes modules for Scenario Modeling—using historical weather data to simulate PSPS events—and Vegetation Risk Assessment to identify hazardous trees and prioritize maintenance.
The PSPS Dashboard provides real-time insights for PSPS decisions, incorporating weather and vegetation data. It forecasts events and allows flexible threshold settings for different equipment segments. Additionally, the Resiliency Testing module evaluates wildfire impacts on grid stability, simulating cascading outages and forecasting potential load-shedding events.
Technosylva
https://technosylva.com/products/wildfire-analyst/firesim/
Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL)
https://www.pnnl.gov/news-media/taming-tomorrows-wildfires
Firescape
Implementations / Deployments
Larger utilities and fire agencies such as CAL FIRE, along with state and federal government agencies are currently subscribed to the commercially available Technosylva product. Cost is a barrier for smaller utilities and co-ops.
While Firescape shares details on its product functionality and industry focus, it does not currently list specific customer names or case studies on its website or in public marketing materials. The company’s website is geared toward a core customer base of utility companies that must manage wildfire risk. Firescape is listed on a website known as F6S [5], which is a global platform designed to support startups, founders, and entrepreneurs. The listing on F6S implies that Firescape is an early state business. According to a software review on F6S, Firescape’s wildfire intelligence platform is deployed by mid‑size businesses, large businesses, and enterprise-level organizations. [f6s.com].
References
[2] https://research.fs.usda.gov/firelab/projects/rothermelfirespread
[4] www.firescape.ai
[5] Firescape Reviews and Pricing 2025 | F6S